Conversation about Ryan Day’s job status, and about next Ohio State head coach odds should the school fire him, has accelerated this week.
After his fourth straight loss to the Michigan Wolverines, a 13-10 shocker on Saturday at Ohio Stadium, Day is in the hot seat. OSU Athletic Director Ross Bjork has publicly backed Day, according to the Columbus Dispatch, stating that the school has no intention of removing the coach as the Buckeyes prepare for the 12-team College Football Playoff. At BetOhio.com, as part of our Ohio sports betting coverage, we developed exclusive odds projecting who the next head coach would be if Day is fired, as many fans are demanding.
Coach | Odds | Pct. Chance |
Mike Vrabel, former NFL coach and Browns consultant | +250 | 28.6% |
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame coach | +450 | 18.2% |
Brian Hartline, OSU co-offensive coordinator | +500 | 16.7% |
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin coach | +550 | 15.4% |
Matt Campbell, Iowa State coach | +800 | 11.1% |
The Field | +900 | 10.0% |
If OSU decides to move on from Day (more on that later), there would be no shortage of potential candidates lining up to take one of the best – albeit one of the most pressure-packed – college football coaching jobs in America. These hypothetical odds are exclusive to BetOhio.com and not available from operators offering Ohio sportsbook promos.
Our favorite is former Buckeyes player Mike Vrabel (+250 odds), an All-American defensive lineman in 1996 who went on to a 14-year playing career in the NFL. The 49-year-old Akron native was the Tennessee Titans’ head coach from 2018-23 and is now a consultant with the Cleveland Browns.
Vrabel began his coaching career at OSU in 2011 and spent three years there as an assistant, first as linebackers coach and then as defensive line coach, before moving on to the NFL.
Second on our list is another former player who wore the scarlet and gray, current Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman. We give him +450 odds, which would translate to an 18.2% implied probability at Ohio sports betting apps if it were offered as a prop bet.
Freeman played linebacker at Ohio State from 2006-08, then returned to Columbus as a graduate assistant in 2010 after a brief NFL playing career. He’s a native of Huber Heights, Ohio, and at just 38 he’s considered one of the brightest coaching prospects in football (some reports are already pegging him as a possible NFL head coaching candidate if he leaves Notre Dame).
In the meantime, Freeman – like Day – is preparing his team for a CFP bid after an 11-1 regular season. The Fighting Irish have +900 odds of winning the national title at BetMGM Ohio Sportsbook.
Yet another former OSU player, Brian Hartline, sits third on our list with +500 odds. Hartline was Freeman’s teammate from 2006-08 and is the current co-offensive coordinator under Day. We keep the Buckeye alumni pipeline going at No. 4 on our list with Luke Fickell (+550), who played for OSU in 1994-96 (alongside Vrabel) and was the school’s interim head coach for the 2011 season before leaving for a successful stint at Cincinnati. Fickell is 12-13 in two seasons as head coach at Wisconsin.
Finally, Iowa State coach Matt Campbell (+1000) is a longshot with no OSU connections. But he is another Ohio native (born in Massillon) and in 2024 he has led the Cyclones to the first 10-win season in program history and a spot in Saturday’s Big 12 championship game against Arizona State.
On the surface, it might seem ludicrous that anybody would think about replacing a college football coach with a 66-10 career record at a school, unless that coach was jumping to the NFL. Even after losing to Michigan, the Buckeyes are securely in the field for the first 12-team College Football Playoff, and they still have +450 odds at bet365 Ohio Sportsbook to win the national title.
Day’s career .868 winning percentage in Columbus is behind only two coaches: Urban Meyer (.902) and Carroll Widdoes (.889), who coached 18 games in the 1944-45 seasons. Day, who replaced Meyer, is above Buckeye coaching legends Jim Tressel (.828) and Woody Hayes (.761) on that all-time list. At age 45, Day has a track record of recruiting future All-Americans and top-line assistant coaches, so if OSU fires him there are dozens of schools around the country that would put his agent’s number on speed dial immediately.
But of those 10 losses, four have been against Michigan. The past four years, in fact. That’s cardinal sin No. 1 in Ohio (ask John Cooper). What’s more, Day is 1-3 in CFP games and 2-4 in bowl games overall. Other than Michigan, the biggest game for OSU this season was the Oct. 12 trip to Big Ten newcomer Oregon. The Buckeyes lost that one as well.
Quite simply, the upcoming CFP is seen as a referendum on whether Day can win a big game (see our Ohio State Playoff seed projections for where the team might land after this weekend’s conference championship games). The Buckeyes are very likely to host a first-round game. Whatever Bjork says now, another loss in Columbus – on the heels of another gut-wrenching loss to the Wolverines – might seal Day’s fate.
USA Today Network photo by Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch
Author
Ohio native Jim Tomlin has 30 years of experience in journalism, mostly in sports. He lends his expertise to BetOhio.com as a writer and editor after previous experience at the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition.
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