2024 Democratic Nominee Odds: Odds Tracker for Democratic Candidates

For the first time in 56 years, an incumbent president eligible for re-election has chosen not to seek another term. President Joe Biden, whose odds of winning a second term in November were dwindling, made the news public in mid-July.

While the timing was somewhat a surprise, the news itself was not as Biden had faced mounting pressure from key party leaders and fundraisers to end his campaign. Those calls intensified after Biden’s disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump, and the president’s ensuing appearances at rallies and in interviews failed to allay supporters’ concerns.

With Biden done, Vice President Kamala Harris is the overwhelming favorite to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination. At bet365 in Ontario, Harris is priced at -10000, indicating an implied probability of 99%. Although bet365 Ohio sportsbook is licensed, political wagering is not allowed in the U.S.

Of particular interest now is who Harris will tap as her running mate to challenge Trump and J.D. Vance.

Latest 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds

Shortly after making the historic announcement, Biden issued a second one to say he’s endorsing Harris, his running mate four years ago, for the top spot on the Democratic ticket. While all the state caucuses and primaries have taken place, the party will officially nominate its candidate this month.

Harris is expected to easily win the nomination, although it’s possible she’ll still need to withstand a challenge from one or more outsiders.

Here are the latest 2024 Democratic nominee odds:

⭐ Kamala Harris	-10000 (99% chance)
Michelle Obama	+3300 (3% chance)
Hillary Clinton	+4000 (2.5% chance)
Gavin Newsom	+8000 (1.2% chance)
Gretchen Whitmer	+15000 (0.6% chance)

Favorites to be the Democratic Nominee in 2024

With Biden out of the running, Harris is very much the candidate to beat for the Democratic nomination. However, favorites don’t always win. Here’s a breakdown of the top candidates outside of Harrs.

• Michelle Obama — The former First Lady has remained on the board for some time. Despite the rumors, her office stressed repeatedly she supported Biden, who served as VP to her husband former President Barack Obama during his two terms in office. While her spokesperson has said she would not run, does that change since Biden’s hat is no longer in the ring?
• Gavin Newsom — The governor of California has basically been the standby candidate for many in the Democratic Party. He’s 56 and has garnered a high national profile in recent years. 
• Hillary Clinton – The former First Lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state was the heavy favorite to win in 2016 but lost in shocking fashion to Trump. While there may be some in the party who wish to see her mount a comeback, she would face a decidedly uphill battle this time around.
• Gretchen Whitmer — The governor of Michigan also serves as the vice chair for the Democratic National Committee. As Michigan is a key battleground state – one Democrats need to win in November – her presence on the ticket as either president or VP would certainly help the party’s cause.
• Best of the rest — Like Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is a popular Democrat who leads a must-win state for Democrats to retain the White House. However, Shapiro is also more likely to be considered for the vice presidency. Robert Kennedy Jr., the latest from the Kennedy family to seek the presidency, is running as an independent, and he’s also severely burned bridges within the party because of his third-party candidacy, which some fear may cost the party much-needed votes in November. Pete Buttigieg, Biden’s Transportation Secretary, ran unsuccessfully four years ago, but at just 42, he remains a rising star within the party and someone who will likely be among the names tossed out as potential candidates in four (or eight years).

Latest Democratic Odds to be Vice President

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro	-400
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear	+400
Arizona U.S. Sen Mark Kelly	+900
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz	+1400
U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg	+1600
Hillary Clinton	+2800
Odds verified on Aug. 2, 2024

Just as you might wonder who will run for the 2024 Democratic nomination, you may also be curious about potential vice presidential candidates. Assuming Harris is the nominee, she will have plenty of candidates from which to choose. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (before he dropped out) received serious consideration, as are Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Right now on bet365, Shapiro (-400) is a heavy favorite, ahead of Beshear (+400) and Kelly (+900).

Is Hillary Clinton running for Democratic VP 2024?

Many people have wondered whether Hillary Clinton (+2800) would run for Democratic VP, or even accept a VP position in 2020. In the last election, she was open about considering running for VP alongside Mike Bloomberg. After he dropped out of the race, there was speculation Biden would not risk her as a candidate. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton which could make her more of an anchor over an asset. During Clinton's 2016 run, British sportsbook William Hill took the biggest known political bet, by a 46 year old female, on her winning the 2016 U.S. Presidency. The bet totaled $615,582 with a 73% chance of success. Had she won, the bettor would have profited $224,000.

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds Set At bet365

Online sportsbook bet365 released its Democratic nomination market in March 2022 and immediately backed Biden as the odds on favorite.

Known as one of the most wide-reaching online gambling platforms, bet365 is licensed in several American states, including Ohio. Nevertheless, it's important to note U.S. bettors are legally prohibited from wagering on political outcomes, and these political odds are sourced from bet365's UK site.

Is Betting on the Election Legal?

Election betting is not legal in the state of Ohio. While betting sites are able to provide sports odds in more than half of states across America, no state is yet to legalize election odds. All odds referenced in this article relate to bet365's U.K. markets, where betting on politics is legal. This means you won't find any betting odds at any of the Ohio sports betting apps. We cannot emphasize enough that not only is political betting illegal in Ohio, its also illegal federally. We do not advise anyone to pursue this type of bet — which would only be available offshore. Offshore betting as a whole is also illegal and not recommended. 

It's worth noting that while you might not be able to bet on the latest Democratic Nominee odds at Ohio sportsbooks, sometimes operators will feature blog posts on the latest odds for entertainment purposes and conversation. 

Key Developments for Democratic Nominees 2024

• 📅 July 2024 – Biden officially drops out of the race on July 21 and throws his support behind Harris.
• 📅 July 2024 - Kamala Harris becomes the betting favorite for the nomination after Biden contracts COVID.
• 📅 June 2024 - Biden’s performance in a nationally televised debate is widely panned by many within the Democratic Party, leading to questions of whether he is fit to remain the nominee.
• 📅 February 2024 – While Joe Biden avoids criminal charges for mishandling classified documents, his election odds slightly lengthen as critics take issue with his memory lapses, according to the Justice Department's findings.
• 📅 September 2023 – While Joe Biden remains a heavy front-runner, Michelle Obama passes Kamala Harris and Robert Kennedy Jr. on the oddsboard.
• 📅 July 2023 – As of summer 2023, more than 150 candidates have put their name forward for the Democratic primaries. However, Biden's odds continue to squeeze.
• 📅 April 2023 – Robert Kennedy Jr. announces he is running in the Democratic primaries a week before Biden launches his campaign on social media. Harris is spotted in Biden's campaign video, raising expectations that she will not seek the Democratic nomination and instead will be his VP choice once more.
• 📅 March 2023 – Marianne Williamson becomes the first major Democratic candidate to announce they are running for president.
• 📅 November 2022 – Biden's poll ratings spike after the Democrats hold on to the Senate in the 2022 U.S. midterms. His odds fall to -250 after the damage-limiting success.
• 📅 July 2022 – A poll shows most Democrats don't want Biden to run again. However, very few figures appear willing to challenge him.
• 📅 January 2022 – Calls grow louder for a "progressive" left candidate to take on Biden in the primaries.
• 📅 September 2021 – Newsom emerges as a viable contender to succeed Biden, as Harris' approval ratings worsen.
• 📅 August 2021 – Biden's approval ratings sink to a record low after America's disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan leads to the Taliban's resurgence.
• 📅 February 2021 – Sportsbooks set a price of +400 on Biden winning the 2024 primaries after a rocky start to his first 100 days as president.
• 📅 November 2020 – Biden wins the 2020 U.S. election but there is expectation that Harris will succeed him for 2024.

Will Biden Choose Not to Run in 2024?

Faced with questions about his health and his mental acuity, President Biden chose not to continue with his campaign, even after securing more than enough delegates to win the nomination.

Can Michelle Obama Win the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

Obama has an 3% chance of winning the Democratic party nomination, according to bet365. Should she challenge Harris at the convention, her popularity could lead to a close battle for the nomination. However, she remains a decided underdog for the time being.

Will Harris be Beat for the Party Nomination?

Vice President Harris is the favorite, but Gavin Newsom and others are still in the conversation for potential nomination.