The Ohio State Buckeyes just completed a 10-2 regular season and await a certain College Football Playoff berth in the inaugural 12-team tournament. At most places, that would be a college football season full of joy.
Ohio isn’t most places.
The land of Ohio sports betting has been doing more hand-wringing than usual after the Buckeyes, who had been No. 2 in the CFP rankings, lost on Saturday to the Michigan Wolverines. It was the fourth consecutive year that UM bested OSU in The Big Game. For Buckeyes fans, this loss to That Team Up North felt much worse than the previous three years because, by any measure, that was not a good Michigan team that planted its flag at Ohio Stadium (literally and figuratively).
Saturday’s 13-10 defeat, as a three-touchdown favorite at Ohio sportsbook apps, pushed the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship game and might lead to OSU losing a home game in the CFP. What does it all mean for OSU’s standing in the CFP? Let’s look:
Seed | Odds | Percentage Chance |
#8 | -550 | 84.6% |
#6 | +1750 | 5.4% |
The Field | +900 | 10.0% |
These odds are exclusive to BetOhio.com and are not available from operators that offer the best Ohio betting promotions for customers.
We’ll know more tonight when the CFP committee releases its new rankings, but we think the No. 8 seed is the most likely scenario for the Buckeyes in the CFP (we give it -550 odds, or an 84.6% implied probability). That would mean a home game in the first round of the Playoff. How far OSU will fall from its perch just behind No. 1 Oregon is hard to tell. But the key question is whether OSU will be in the top eight when the final rankings are released after this weekend’s conference championship games (see our explanation of the new CFP format below for why that matters).
OSU is still high on the odds boards at major operators to win their first national title since the 2014 season. At bet365 Ohio Sportsbook, the Buckeyes are at +450 CFP title odds, third behind Oregon (+350) and Texas (+425).
A lot would have to go right for OSU to rise as high as No. 6, which is why we have that as an unlikely scenario, at +1750 odds. Any other sed (No. 7, for instance) has +900 odds.
There is no chance that Ohio State will be left out of the College Football Playoff despite that loss to Michigan.
But between now and the final rankings, there are a lot of questions for the CFP committee to consider. For instance: Let’s say Oregon beats Penn State in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game (the Ducks are a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM Ohio Sportsbook). Will the committee punish the Nittany Lions for losing to the only undefeated team in the country? Would Penn State fall behind Ohio State? After all, the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions in the regular season – but some might feel it’s unfair to punish Penn State for playing that extra game this weekend when OSU failed to qualify for it.
And what about Tennessee? When tonight’s rankings come out, will the Buckeyes still be ahead of the Vols? If not, that might consign Ohio State to a road trip for the first round of the CFP.
Whoever loses the SEC Championship Game between Georgia and Texas (the Longhorns are favored by 2.5 points at DraftKings Ohio Sportsbook) is in the field. The Vols, No. 8 in last week’s CFP rankings, will be too, plus perhaps a fourth SEC team.
Ohio State isn’t playing this weekend, but there is still plenty for Buckeyes fans to watch. Hey, it beats rewatching highlights of the Michigan game.
What’s the new CFP format? The five highest ranked conference champions – from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and the Group of Five leagues – will automatically qualify. The top four of those teams in the rankings will occupy Seeds 1-4 and get a first-round bye in the CFP.
The next seven teams will be chosen at large. Teams 5-12 in the bracket will play first-round games at campus sites, to be held this year on Dec. 20 and 21. Those winners will face the top four teams in the quarterfinals – the Fiesta, Peach, Rose and Sugar Bowl – on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. The semifinals will be the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9, 2025, and the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 10. The CFP National Championship Game is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
All of that is why we cannot project Ohio State to a specific CFP bowl or first-round game. There’s no way to know where the Buckeyes might be sent (or whether they can stay home for the first round) until the bracket is revealed the day after the conference championship games.
At Caesars Ohio Sportsbook, Oregon is favored to win the Big Ten title game with -175 moneyline odds. The Nittany Lions are +148 as of Dec. 3.
Year | Bowl | Result |
2023 | Cotton Bowl | Loss, 14-3 against Missouri |
2022 | CFB Playoff | Loss, 42-41 against Georgia |
2021 | Rose Bowl | Win, 48-45 against Utah |
2020 | CFB Playoff | Win, 49-28 against Clemson; Loss, 52-24 against Alabama |
2019 | CFB Playoff | Loss, 29-23 against Clemson |
The Buckeyes have lost three of their past four bowl games, including two CFP games. In their most recent CFP appearance, OSU lost a heartbreaker in the semifinal against Georgia to end the 2022 season.
USA Today Network photo by Barbara J. Perenic/The Columbus Dispatch
For the 2024-25 college football season, we project Ohio State to play in the College Football Playoff. The exact matchup and location will be announced when the 12-team Playoff field is set on Dec. 8.
The Buckeyes are bowl eligible, having earned their sixth win of the 2024 season on Oct. 26 against Nebraska. Their most recent bowl game was the 2023 Cotton Bowl, a loss against Missouri. OSU now awaits a final seeding in the 12-team CFP.
Author
Ohio native Jim Tomlin has 30 years of experience in journalism, mostly in sports. He lends his expertise to BetOhio.com as a writer and editor after previous experience at the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturday Down South and Saturday Tradition.
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