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Christopher Boan writes for BetOhio.com and has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, with experience at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
How Do The Reds and Guardians Do During The Regular Season Compared To Spring Training?
With spring training wrapped up, BetOhio.com was curious how the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians have historically done during the regular season, compared to their spring training results. We’re seeking trends that might be relevant for Ohio sports betting in the 2025 baseball season, with an explanation of our methodology below.
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Reds Spring Training vs. Regular Season Difference
2025 Spring Training W-L% | ‘22-’24 Avg. Difference | 2025 Regular Season Projection |
.414 | -.055 | .359 |
Using Baseball-Reference.com, we found the spring training and regular season winning percentage for each MLB team between 2022 and 2024. We found the difference between spring training and regular season winning percentages, and ranked teams based on the difference. Using those numbers, we then projected the 2025 regular season winning percentage for the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians, if their average differential holds.
We’ll start with trends that could be of interest for those monitoring Cincinnati Reds playoff chances in 2025.
Cincinnati Reds Looking To Buck Trend
Downstate in the Queen City, the Cactus League portion of the 2025 season was anything but pretty, as the Cincinnati Reds went 12-17 (.414), finishing directly behind the 13-18 (.419) Guardians, some 10 games behind the 21-6 San Francisco Giants.
In the past three years, the Reds’ regular season winning percentage has been .055 lower than the team’s spring training figure. Our research at BetOhio.com, where you can find the best Ohio sportsbook promotions, puts our projected end-of-season number at .359 in 2025 for the Reds if their trend holds.
If such a dismal finish happens, it would mark Cincinnati’s worst year-end winning percentage since 1934, when they went 52-99-1 (a .344 winning percentage). In a 162-game season, this trend would mean a 58-102 record for the NL Central stalwarts (a .358 winning percentage). That would set a club record for losses for a franchise that has recorded 100 defeats only twice in a long, illustrious history.
Luckily for baseball fans in Cincy, oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook Ohio have higher expectations for this year’s team. The operator gives the Reds +300 odds of making the postseason, 10th out of 15 teams in the Senior Circuit.
Throw in Cincy’s +600 odds to win the team’s division (ranking fourth out of five teams) and you have a decent synopsis of the type of season that oddsmakers expect along the banks of the Ohio River. Any grandiose dreams of October baseball seem unlikely, but there are no signs of a pending 100-loss season inside Great American Ballpark this baseball season.
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Guardians Spring Training vs. Regular Season Difference
2025 Spring Training W-L% | ‘22-’24 Avg. Difference | 2025 Regular Season Projection |
.419 | +.109 | .528 |
Up the road in Cleveland, the MLB betting theme was much the same for the Guardians. They went 13-18 (.419) in Cactus League play, finishing 10 games behind the Giants in the exhibition circuit.
Luckily for baseball fans in Cleveland, the Guardians have fared much better when the games count than they did in Arizona. Cleveland has had a win percentage an average of .109 points better in the regular season compared to the Cactus League between 2022 and 2024.
Such an outcome this baseball season would net Cleveland a winning percentage of .528, which would still be down big time over the club’s 92-69 (.571) campaign last year. But those 85 or 86 wins (splitting the difference on that winning percentage) could be enough to eke out a playoff spot this fall, and our Cleveland Guardians playoff chances page will help you compare operators in that regard.
DraftKings oddsmakers aren’t riding high on the Guardians, though. That sportsbook has +300 odds of winning the AL Central in back-to-back seasons. That’s fourth out of five teams behind the Minnesota Twins (+210), Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers (+270 each) but ahead of the lowly Chicago White Sox, who check in at +25000.
Luckily for manager Stephen Vogt and his staff, the Guardians started the season with a bang against the Royals, beating Cleveland’s longtime division rivals 7-4 on Thursday’s Opening Day in Kansas City. There’s a long way to go to determine if it will be another smashing season of baseball along the banks of the Cuyahoga River. Cleveland’s odds to win the franchise’s first World Series since 1948 sit at +3000 with folks using the bet365 Ohio Sportsbook bonus code as of March 28.
USA Today Network photo by Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer
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